SA election 2018: Steven Marshall to lead government; results, analysis from MacKillop, Hammond, Schubert, Chaffey, Heyson | VIDEO, MAP

Success: Nick McBride looks certain to claim victory for the Liberals in MacKillop.
Success: Nick McBride looks certain to claim victory for the Liberals in MacKillop.

Here’s how election night unfolded, with rolling updates from Murray Valley Standard journalist Peri Strathearn.

10.30pm

Adrian Pederick has celebrated his re-election as Member for Hammond with dozens of supporters at the Murray Bridge Hotel.

In a live video broadcast on The Standard’s Facebook page, he spoke about his fear of winning the seat, but being returned to the Opposition benches – a fear which was not realised, as Steven Marshall looks to have led his team to victory over Jay Weatherill and Labor.

He thanked his loyal constituents for sticking with the Liberals through 16 years of Labor government, which began when his predecessor, Peter Lewis, sided with Mike Rann in 2002.

“To see them keep turning up, handing out how-to-votes, coming to functions, raise the money for well over a decade … I can’t thank them enough,” he said.

“Without that support I wouldn’t be here today.”

He said he would continue to serve all people in Hammond, not just those who had chosen him as their preferred representative.

“I don’t care who they voted for,” he said.

“My job is to represent the people and to act.”

9.30pm

Back on deck: Liberal Member for Hammond Adrian Pederick, second from left, celebrates his re-election with Cheyanne Richter-Uren, Miranda Willersdorf, Greg O'Brien and some of his supporters at the Murray Bridge Hotel. Photo: Peri Strathearn.

Back on deck: Liberal Member for Hammond Adrian Pederick, second from left, celebrates his re-election with Cheyanne Richter-Uren, Miranda Willersdorf, Greg O'Brien and some of his supporters at the Murray Bridge Hotel. Photo: Peri Strathearn.

Our map is finished, and it is full of blue dots.

Liberal Adrian Pederick finished first at every polling place in the district in the end.

While SA Best finished firmly in second place – only at Murray Bridge High School did Labor’s Mat O’Brien get more votes than Kelly Gladigau – the Liberals still surpassed 50 per cent today, enough to render a preference count unnecessary.

Remarkably there are still more than 10,000 pre-poll and postal votes left to count, but they would have to trend strongly against Mr Pederick for the result to come into question.

At this stage it looks like the Liberals on 50.8pc, SA Best on 23.4pc, Labor on 16.5pc, the Greens on 4.9pc and the Australian Conservatives last on 4.5pc.

The Standard is trying to reach Mr Pederick for a comment.

8.30pm

The great man Antony Green has called it, and I agree: Adrian Pederick will be back as the Liberal Member for Hammond.

We’re simply not seeing the vote swings we would need to see if any other candidate were to have success.

There are no orange, red, green or brown dots on the map.

All that remains to be seen is whether Hammond’s MP will join a Liberal government or be forced to trudge back to the Opposition benches.

In Heysen, to the southwest, things are rather more in flux, and it looks like SA Best candidate John Illingworth has his nose in front.

We don’t know yet what Strathalbyn’s residents think of that, though.

Liberal Nick McBride looks more and more comfy in MacKillop, and Stephan Knoll and Tim Whetstone are also likely to retain their seats for the same party.

8pm

A big one has come in, and come in strong for the Liberals: Mannum, which Kelly Gladigau might have hoped would be a stronghold for her.

Two more big ones are Murray Bridge North School, where Adrian Pederick is also ahead, though the vote is a bit more split between the three largest parties; and Tailem Bend, which is comfortably Liberal.

Tracy Hill’s candidacy for SA Best has not gone down as well as she might have hoped in Meningie, where she and her husband have a seafood business – the Liberals have won 56 per cent of the vote there against her 27pc, likely indicating an early end to vote-counting in MacKillop.

Results at 8pm. Image: Peri Strathearn.

Results at 8pm. Image: Peri Strathearn.

Sedan, in Chaffey, has gone Liberal as well.

Back in Hammond, we’ve only had a few polling places return results in the past half an hour, but all are Liberal blue.

Let’s take a step back for a moment.

Liberal MP Adrian Pederick won 55 per cent of the vote in 2014 (albeit with no Xenophon candidate); a Liberal MP won 47pc in the federal electorate of Barker, running against a Xenophon candidate, in 2016.

At this early stage, Mr Pederick looks to have held onto his share of the vote, while SA Best has won Labor’s usual share and Mat O’Brien has been relegated to a distant third.

He will be relying on statewide results going his way as he watches the count unfold at Labor HQ in western Adelaide.

7.30pm

Mypolonga, Wellington, Purnong, Jervois and Coomandook, Adrian Pederick’s home town, have also come in strongly for the Liberals.

The early results are not encouraging if you’re an SA Best supporter.

Milang was very close, and the Liberals have fallen short of a majority there, but you’d want to see more results like that for this contest to drag on into next week.

Still, it’s worth considering that the results from the bigger booths in Murray Bridge and Mannum are yet to come in – we’re only talking about 3000 of 25,000 votes so far.

Hammond is a bit of a microcosm of South Australia, in that results in the rural city are likely to be more varied than those in surrounding areas, so we’ll wait and see.

Up in Swan Reach, about 50pc of voters have given Liberal Member for Chaffey Tim Whetstone their continued support.

Down at Coonalpyn, Liberal candidate Nick McBride, hoping to succeed Mitch Williams, also found firm party loyalty.

7pm

First results!

So far Hammond has four blue dots: Lameroo and Langhorne Creek gave strong support to Adrian Pederick, and Woods Point and Walker Flat a bit less.

But the big story so far might be the emergence of SA Best as the natural party of opposition, largely at the expense of Labor – it’s up around 24 per cent early on, while Labor is right down below 10pc.

6.30pm

There are 25,023 people enrolled to vote in Hammond.

About a sixth of them are likely to have cast their votes early, and we won’t find out who they went for until Monday.

That’s all we know so far.

6pm

Victorian Opposition Leader Matthew Guy lends a helping hand to SA Liberals on voting day.

Victorian Opposition Leader Matthew Guy lends a helping hand to SA Liberals on voting day.

For what it’s worth, a Liberal victory in Hammond – meaning the return of sitting MP Adrian Pederick – is the most likely outcome of today’s poll, and Liberal candidate Nick McBride has a healthy chance of success in MacKillop.

But the outcome is far from certain.

Here are the sort of results we would need to see for this to get really interesting.

Neither the Greens nor Conservatives will, realistically, win either of the local seats – each will likely poll between five and 10 per cent.

Votes for those parties would then go on, via preferences, to Labor and the Liberals, respectively.

For Labor to win either seat, they would need to get more votes than SA Best and hope their preferences add up.

For SA Best to win, they would need a primary vote – that’s first preferences – higher than Labor, and ideally up around 30pc.

For the Liberals, it’s a simple game: poll above 50pc, or even 45pc, and you’d be feeling confident.

5.30pm

Hi folks – I’m Peri Strathearn, senior journalist at The Murray Valley Standard, and I’ll be analysing tonight’s state election results in the Murraylands as they come in after 6pm.

I’ll be updating the interactive map of Hammond, above, throughout the evening, so keep it up on your phone while you watch your TV coverage of choice … or do something more interesting, I guess.

Each polling place within the electorate has started out white, but I’ll update their colour as results come in so you can tell how people voted in your town: blue for the Liberals, red for labor, orange for SA Best, green for the Greens, and we’ll go with brown for the Conservatives to avoid confusion.

The more of any one colour you can see across the map, the closer we are to a result; though some dots (such as those in Murray Bridge and Mannum) will carry more weight than others.

The icons are intended to represent people casting votes, and are definitely not the Google icon for somebody throwing something in a bin.

I’ll also be providing results from neighbouring electorates – particularly MacKillop, which includes Meningie, Coonalpyn and Tintinara; but also Heysen, which includes Strathalbyn; and Schubert and Chaffey, whose Liberal MPs formerly represented parts of the Murraylands.

We may not get a definitive outcome tonight, partly because people’s votes are likely to be split between the three biggest parties, and partly because so many people will have voted ahead of time – their votes will not be counted until Monday.

If you have any questions about the election or the way votes are counted, leave a comment on our Facebook page and I’ll do my best to answer them.

For results from elsewhere around the state, visit www.ecsa.sa.gov.au.

Contenders: Election posters at Murray Bridge High School. Photo: Peri Strathearn.

Contenders: Election posters at Murray Bridge High School. Photo: Peri Strathearn.

This story Liberals dominate in MacKillop, other SA electorates first appeared on Naracoorte Herald.